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Facebook Growth Predictions

Henry Elliss
Henry Elliss
Managing Director
2 June 2008

I was taking a look at my Facebook ‘Active User’ stats this morning, as you do, and I wondered where we might get to by the start of 2009 if current growth rate continues? So, I added some trendlines (with my limited Excel knowledge!) and projected off to the end of the year, and below is the result. If everything stays the same (which we all know it won’t – what with saturation point, changes in the market, etc etc) then the following may happen:

  • The US should hit 31,000,000 active users by the end of 2008
  • By the same time, the UK should have hit 14,000,000 active users
  • Canada should retain third place for a while at least, with 11,000,000 active users

I tried it with the bottom half of the top 10, but my graph got so ugly that it made my eyes hurt! Needless to say, the 4-10 positions are not rising as quickly as the top 3, so unless anything massive happens they should all be around the 4,000,000 mark or less by New Year’s Eve 2008.

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